Winter 2024

Canada’s sluggish housing markets in recovery mode following third straight interest rate cut

According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey released today, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 1.6 per cent year over year to $815,500 in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price decreased 1.1 per cent, following sluggish activity in most – though not all – markets through the summer months. Coast to coast, sales volumes began to pick up in September.

“Despite three cuts to the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate, buyer demand nationally remains weak, particularly among two key groups: first-time homebuyers and small investors,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “We believe that both groups will re-enter the market in significant numbers as property values begin to rise again. With further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada likely this year, we anticipate prices will appreciate more quickly, eliminating the advantages of waiting for first-time buyers and making calculations more favourable for investors.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.0 per cent year over year to $850,400, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.5 per cent year over year to $590,200. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased modestly by 1.2 per cent, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.1 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company. 

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previously upgraded forecast has been revised down to reflect current market conditions, specifically in the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, which recorded lower-than-anticipated activity through the spring and summer months. 

“The market recovery, albeit uneven across the country, is well underway in a majority of markets. While we may not see significant price appreciation in the typically-slower fourth quarter of this year, we believe our previous forecast will come to fruition in the anticipated early spring market of 2025. Given the building demand – both organic and from immigration – the 2025 spring market may start as early as late January or early February.”

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