Spring 2026

Canada’s housing market anticipates a cautious spring rebound

According to the Royal LePage House® Price Survey and Market Forecast, the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada decreased 1.5 per cent year over year to $807,200 in the fourth quarter of 2025. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price posted a similar decline of 1.1 per cent. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased modestly by 0.8 per cent year over year to $849,100, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.9 per cent to $575,300.

“Despite subdued activity levels, home prices largely held their ground in the final quarter of 2025,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Economic uncertainty – driven by trade disputes and broader geopolitical tensions – has weighed on consumer confidence and muted what is typically a more active fall market. Instead of a fall seasonal surge, we saw a quieter close to the year. 

“That said, buyers heading into the spring market have a meaningful advantage over last year: lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice. In an era where home inventory is chronically constrained, inventory levels are Goldilocks healthy. Together, these conditions are creating a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s most expensive markets.”

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2026 Market Survey Forecast, projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase a modest 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter in 2025. The median price of a single-family detached property is expected to increase 2.0 per cent, while the median price of a condominium is anticipated to decrease 2.5 per cent.

“What continues to be a drag on the housing market is consumer confidence. Greater clarity on trade relations with the United States would certainly help, but there’s also a more subtle shift underway,” said Soper. “After a full year of economic and political turbulence, more and more households have given up waiting for perfect certainty and are refocusing on what is happening at home, and what matters most: securing the right housing for their families. As that adjustment takes hold, we expect it to gradually translate into increased market participation.”

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 1 Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

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