The price of a home in Canada forecast to rise 16% in 2021

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate price¹ of a home in Canada increased 25.3 per cent year-over-year to $727,000 in the second quarter of 2021, as inventory shortages continue across the country. Eighty-nine per cent of the regions surveyed saw year-over-year double-digit aggregate price gains, driven largely by increases in the single-family detached property segment. However, the level of competition seen in recent months is beginning to slow. 

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home rose 27.1 per cent year-over-year to $765,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 11.7 per cent year-over-year to $525,000. Price data includes both resale and new build. 

“After a year of record growth in the Canadian housing market, we appear to have passed the peak of price appreciation,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “While current home price gains are expected to be sustained due to chronically low inventory and new demand from growing household formation, investors and newcomers, the torrid pace of home price appreciation has begun to moderate.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 16 per cent to $771,500 in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in April, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the current state of the market. While the rate of price appreciation is decelerating, a boost in demand is expected in the fall from foreign students, newcomers and investors as pandemic-era restrictions are lifted and the effects of the global health crisis wane.  

A systemic housing supply shortage remains the biggest threat to Canadians’ dreams of home ownership, or even a decent home to rent. Driven by the country’s ambitious economic growth plans, the population will continue to expand. With a lack of housing inventory in markets from coast to coast, competition for available property will remain acute and home prices will continue to rise.

_{¹ Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build. During the second quarter, the company revised its House Price Survey methodology, including geographical boundaries and housing types.}