The price of a home in Canada expected to rise 13.5% in 2021

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price¹ of a home in Canada increased 14.1 per cent year-over-year to $749,165 in the first quarter of 2021, as strong demand continues to outpace supply in virtually every market across the country. More than two thirds of the regions surveyed (67%) saw year-over-year double-digit aggregate price gains, driven largely by the single-family property segment. Seventy-seven per cent of regions surveyed reported median price appreciation of standard two-storey homes of ten per cent or more.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a standard two-storey home rose 15.9 per cent year-over-year to $894,140, while the median price of a bungalow increased 14.1 per cent to $628,341, and the median price of a condominium increased 2.0 per cent year-over-year to $509,364. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

“2020 was a year like no other in Canadian real estate, with its unprecedented demand for homes, and month after month of record-setting sales and price appreciation,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The usual winter slowdown was non-existent, and that momentum was carried forward through the first quarter of 2021.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 13.5 per cent to $805,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2020, has been revised upward to reflect the current state of the market.

A return to pre-pandemic levels of immigration; the vaccine rollout’s impact on economic stability and confidence in the labour market; and, continued low interest rates are supportive of home price growth through 2021. 

“The winter of ‘20/’21 was one of the most imbalanced real estate markets in our country’s history, with so many people wishing to improve their living conditions, and a pandemic-driven shortage of homes for sale,” said Soper. “We expect this extreme seller’s market to moderate as the year progresses. Some buyers will step away from the market in the face of sharply higher prices, and the supply of new listings should improve as people feel more confident that the health crisis is under control.

“During the first wave of the pandemic, we saw a massive shift from urban centres to small towns and suburban neighbourhoods. Across the country, the revival of these secondary cities has become a driving force of the market, attracting buyers of all ages,” said Soper.

 _{¹ Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.}